Hendrik Jan Bergveld
Dr. Maaike Snelder

Dutch Province of North Holland and Amsterdam Transport Region

Impact Study Autonomous Vehicles - Arrival of AVs will increase road congestion

What is the impact of the arrival of self-driving cars? And how will this affect the society and policy making? Arcadis and TNO were commissioned by the Province of North Holland and the Amsterdam Transport Region to investigate the consequences.

The con­se­quen­ces of the ar­ri­val of au­to­no­mous ve­hi­cles brings with it many un­cer­tain­ties. In ca­se self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles and their ef­fects are per­cei­ved as po­si­ti­ve and tech­no­lo­gy keeps de­ve­lo­ping at a ra­pid pace (and hence be­co­mes mo­re af­for­da­ble), a “self-dri­ving fu­ture” will be pos­si­ble. A fu­ture in which the traf­fic and trans­port sys­tem is ra­di­cal­ly dif­fe­rent from to­day, in­cor­po­ra­ting self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles as al­ter­na­ti­ves and/or sup­ple­ments for cur­rent trans­por­ta­ti­on mo­des. Go­vern­men­tal in­ter­ven­ti­ons can al­so ac­ce­le­ra­te a tran­si­ti­on to a self-dri­ving fu­ture, while the­re are al­so con­tra-pro­duc­ti­ve de­ve­lop­ments that might im­pe­de this transition.

The Dutch Pro­vin­ce of North Hol­land and the Ams­ter­dam Trans­port Re­gi­on ex­pres­sed in­te­rest to gain in­sight in­to the im­pact of self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles on the so­cie­ty and on their re­spon­si­bi­li­ties. The re­sults are used as a buil­ding block for the pro­vin­ce's Smart Mo­bi­li­ty cour­se, and in the Ams­ter­dam Me­tro­po­li­tan Area Smart Mo­bi­li­ty Pro­gram­me (MRA). De­sign & Con­sul­tan­cy firm Ar­ca­dis and Re­se­arch In­sti­tu­te TNO car­ri­ed out an im­pact ana­ly­sis with the cen­tral ques­ti­on: "What con­se­quen­ces does the ad­van­ced au­to­ma­ti­on of dri­ving tasks have on so­ci­al, eco­no­mic, spa­ti­al and mo­bi­li­ty de­ve­lop­ment for the Pro­vin­ce of North Hol­land (PNH) and the Ams­ter­dam Trans­port Re­gi­on, and how will this im­pact their ro­le as in­fra­st­ruc­tu­re and pu­blic trans­port managers?"

The im­pact de­ter­mi­na­ti­on is per­for­med through a sce­na­rio stu­dy, de­ve­lo­ping four sce­na­ri­os which are pro­jec­ted on fi­ve dis­tinct area ty­pes in the Pro­vin­ce. The­se sce­na­ri­os form the in­put for a mo­del cal­cu­la­ti­on, using the Quick Scan Tool as de­ve­lo­ped by TNO. The out­co­me of the mo­del shows that the in­tro­duc­tion of self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles in the Pro­vin­ce of North Hol­land leads to an in­crea­se in ve­hi­cle ki­lo­me­ters for all area ty­pes and all sce­na­rio’s. This re­sults in an in­crea­se of the road net­work pres­su­re (ve­hi­cle-loss-hours) for pri­ma­ri­ly ur­ban areas for all sce­na­ri­os, while the pres­su­re on ru­ral areas re­mains si­mi­lar to the re­fe­rence si­tua­ti­on 2040 (ex­cept for the most ex­tre­me sce­na­rio whe­re it in­crea­ses). The in­crea­se in ve­hi­cle ki­lo­me­ters is ex­plai­ned by a switch in mo­de choice among users, pre­fer­ring self-dri­ving con­cepts over con­ven­tio­nal trans­port mo­des, such as pu­blic trans­port (bus, tram, me­tro and train), cy­cling and wal­king. Self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles form at­trac­ti­ve trans­port al­ter­na­ti­ves which en­able a lar­ger pu­blic to have ac­cess to mo­bi­li­ty be­cau­se of lower user-costs and ease-of-use.

The afo­re­men­tio­ned re­sults in an im­pro­vement of so­ci­al de­ve­lop­ment, al­lo­wing a broa­der pu­blic to par­tici­pa­te in the com­mu­ni­ty. Al­so, a slight im­pro­vement is ex­pec­ted for traf­fic safe­ty be­cau­se of over­all im­pro­vements in ve­hi­cle tech­no­lo­gy and per­for­mance, while howe­ver con­flicts bet­ween fast and slow trans­por­ta­ti­on mo­des (es­pe­cial­ly in high­ly den­se areas) re­main an at­ten­ti­on point. A spa­ti­al chan­ge is ex­pec­ted be­cau­se of a (mi­nor) po­pu­la­ti­on ex­chan­ge bet­ween ur­ban and ru­ral areas, and a chan­ge of the func­tional use of par­king fa­ci­li­ties (long term par­king vs Kiss+Ri­de) in and around ur­ban areas (nodes and mass at­trac­tion locations).

From an eco­no­mic per­spec­ti­ve, a chan­ge could oc­cur in job mar­kets, whe­re so­me pro­fes­si­ons could be­co­me ob­so­le­te while new mar­kets and de­mands will emer­ge. Al­so, costs of as­set ma­nage­ment ope­ra­ti­ons could ri­se be­cau­se of an in­crea­se in ve­hi­cle ki­lo­me­ters on the road net­work, re­qui­ring mo­re (fre­quent) main­ten­an­ce. The in­crea­se in ve­hi­cle ki­lo­me­ters could re­sult in an in­crea­sed pres­su­re on sus­tai­na­bi­li­ty and li­va­bi­li­ty (gas emis­si­on and sound ex­posure), which howe­ver could be com­pen­sa­ted through par­al­lel de­ve­lop­ments such as the elec­tri­fi­ca­ti­on of vehicles.

Sub­se­quent­ly, in­ter­ven­ti­ons are iden­ti­fied to fa­ci­li­ta­te op­por­tu­nities and/or to mi­ti­ga­te risks on po­li­cy goals as a re­sult of the in­tro­duc­tion of self-dri­ving ve­hi­cles. A selec­tion of the­se in­ter­ven­ti­ons is used as in­put for the Quick Scan Tool to show­ca­se the im­pacts of the in­ter­ven­ti­ons. This shows that far-rea­ching (com­bi­na­ti­ons of) re­pres­si­ve mea­su­res are ne­cess­a­ry to gua­ran­tee the ac­ces­si­bi­li­ty of the traf­fic sys­tem and the qua­li­ty of life in ur­ban areas. This re­qui­res a mul­ti­modal and in­te­gra­ted net­work vi­si­on on the pu­blic trans­port sys­tem of the future.

The mul­ti­modal and in­te­gra­ted net­work vi­si­on can al­so ela­bo­ra­te on op­por­tu­nities for ac­ces­si­bi­li­ty and li­va­bi­li­ty im­pro­vement of less den­se ur­ban, ru­ral, and re­crea­tio­nal areas. This can be achie­ved through the de­ploy­ment of new trans­port/mo­bi­li­ty con­cepts such as Mo­bi­li­ty as a Ser­vice. In the ne­ar fu­ture, op­por­tu­nities with the­se new mo­bi­li­ty con­cepts can al­re­ady be ex­ploi­ted through the de­ploy­ment of pi­lots/ex­pe­ri­ments. This of­fers the chan­ce for ac­ces­si­bi­li­ty im­pro­vement of the­se areas in the short term.

Die Autoren
Quelle: Arcadis
Hendrik Jan Bergveld
Project Leader / Senior Consultant
Arcadis Nederland B.V.
Dr. Maaike Snelder
Senior Consultant